SoFla Guide Editors
Miami went out and got Giannis Antetokounmpo this summer, and the league’s front offices responded with a collective shrug. In the 25th annual NBA GM Survey, published October 15, 2026, the Heat landed tied for seventh in the Eastern Conference with just 2% of the weighted voting points, according to NBA.com. Not a single general manager put Miami first or second in the East.
The numbers behind the shrug
NBA.com’s breakdown shows exactly how lukewarm the GMs were on the Heat. Miami picked up 3% of third-place votes and 13% of fourth-place votes, and that was it. No first-place love, no second-place love, and a final tally that put them in a tie for seventh in the conference.
That’s a strange place to land for a team that just added a two-time MVP and a champion. The Bucks sent Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis to Miami on the eve of the 2026 NBA Draft in a deal that cost the Heat Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis and three first-round picks. That is a lot of outgoing talent and draft capital, and the GMs clearly noticed. Miami got 10% of the vote for best overall offseason moves, finishing second to the Philadelphia 76ers, who ran away with 73%, per NBA.com.
So the executives liked the trade. They just don’t seem convinced it turns Miami into a contender right away.
The GMs are not alone, either. ESPN’s 2026-27 NBA Summer Forecast projected the Heat to finish seventh in the East at 47-35, one spot behind the Atlanta Hawks. Seventh from the GMs, seventh from ESPN. The consensus is remarkably consistent, and it is not exactly a parade down Biscayne Boulevard.
Giannis gets respect, just not the top spot
Here’s where it gets interesting. The survey was a Victor Wembanyama show from top to bottom. According to NBA.com, Wembanyama led the MVP voting with 77%, followed by Nikola Jokić at 10% and Anthony Edwards at 7%, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum also picking up votes. Antetokounmpo received zero first-place MVP votes.
Zero. For a player with two MVP trophies on the shelf.
And yet another part of the survey on NBA.com tells a slightly different story. In the category tracking the highest percentage of total votes on position questions, Antetokounmpo tied for second at 15%, sitting just behind Gilgeous-Alexander at 16%. So the executives have him firmly in the conversation, even if nobody was willing to pencil him in as the MVP favorite.
The clearest sign of respect came at his position. Yahoo Sports reported that Antetokounmpo, now listed with Miami, pulled 70% of the vote for best power forward, well ahead of Wembanyama at 23%. In a survey Wembanyama otherwise dominated, that’s a notable win for the Heat’s new centerpiece.
Put it all together and the picture is a little contradictory. GMs think Giannis is the best power forward in basketball by a wide margin. They rank him among the top players in the league on the positional ballots. They just don’t think the team around him is good enough to push Miami into the East’s top tier.
Why the skepticism makes some sense
Context matters here, and the context is not flattering. Miami finished 10th in the East last season at 43-39 and missed the playoffs entirely. Going from a lottery-adjacent team to a conference favorite in one offseason is a big ask, even with a superstar arriving.
There’s also the small matter of what the Heat gave up. Herro, Ware, Jaquez and Jakucionis all left in the deal, along with three first-round picks. That’s depth and youth walking out the door, and the GMs may simply be waiting to see how the remaining roster fits around Antetokounmpo before buying in.
Then there’s the elephant in the room. Antetokounmpo is entering the final year of his contract with Miami. He becomes eligible to sign a four-year, $275 million max extension six months after the trade became official, which means the long-term picture in Miami is still unwritten. Executives tend to be cautious about situations with that kind of uncertainty hanging over them.
And this year’s survey had an unusual gravitational pull. The San Antonio Spurs took 50% of championship votes, and Wembanyama took 77% of MVP votes and 93% of the vote for the player GMs would most want to build a franchise around, both of those percentages survey records. When one team and one player are sucking up that much oxygen, everyone else looks smaller by comparison.
What’s next
The Heat don’t get to argue with a survey. They get to play games, and the first stretch of the season will tell us quickly whether the GMs were sleeping on Miami or seeing it clearly.
Seventh in the East is the number to beat. ESPN says 47 wins gets you there. If Antetokounmpo plays like the best power forward in the league, the way 70% of GMs believe he will, the Heat have a real chance to make that 2% look silly by spring.
For now, though, the league’s front offices have spoken. They like the trade. They love the player. They’re just not ready to believe in the team.
